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Prediction for CME (2024-12-14T05:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-14T05:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35648/-1
CME Note: Faint CME likely associated with flaring and a minor filament eruption seen around ~2024-12-14T05:12 near/south of Active Region 3916 decayed to a plage (~S15W69) or alternatively a less certain eruption of very long filament along longitude ~S25 centered around 35-40 deg longitude, maybe seen erupting in SUVI 304/284 (but it is more likely that the matter fell back). The CME is preceded by a similarly shaped even fainter 2024-12-14T04:00Z CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-17T19:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 41214
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Dec 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given) 
PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Dec 2024  10CM FLUX: 163 / AP: 008 
PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Dec 2024  10CM FLUX: 161 / AP: 010 
PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Dec 2024  10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 007

Coronal mass ejections: A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in
LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 05:36 UTC on December 14, lifting off the southwest quadrant. It is most likely associated with a filament eruption and flaring activity near SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3917) around 05:10 UTC on December 14. The CME is propagating to the southwest with an estimated speed of 800 km/s. Current analysis suggests a small chance that a mild glancing blow may arrive at Earth in the UTC evening on December 17.

Lead Time: 74.48 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2024-12-14T16:31Z

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